EGM
ANALIST COVERAGE
Questa sezione permette di consultare le ricerche pubblicate dagli analisti finanziari relative ad ELSA Solutions e verificare come le case di investimento valutano la società e il suo modello di business.
ELSA Solutions SpA
“Deep value while waiting momentum to improve”
Update Report | 18 Febbraio 2025 | Value Track
Abstract
FY24 provisional data offers mixed KPIs
FY24 KPIs are reassuring overall as for FY24 but confirm momentum in the industry remains weak. Revenues from Sales reached €21.9mn (+13.6% y/y), primarily driven by Aliant (+28.0% y/y), while the two product lines changed pace in 2H: motion control recovered fast (+27% y/y), while growth in batteries faced a slowdown, driving FY24P top line 4% below our expectations. Dec 2024 Backlog was €7.1mn, reducing vs. €10.9mn of June 2024 and reflecting a shortened order visibility (ca. 4 months) as clients are very cautious in committing to long-term. Finally, Project Intake (for Aliant) stood at #32 projects in FY24, exceeding our #28 estimate and almost in line with the peak result of #34 projects in FY23, bodying very well for M/T growth potential.Fair Value down to €4.55 per share
Fair Value is revised to €4.55 p.s. (vs €5.15), still resulting from peers’ multiple analysis (on FY25E-26E financials) and DCF model. At fair value, FY25E multiples are 0.9x EV/Sales, 8.5x EV/EBITDA and 15.3x P/E, supported by strong growth. We estimate that the current stock price is overly cautiously factoring in an extra ca. 40% EBITDA cut in 2025E.
ELSA Solutions SpA
“Now stock offers good value & growth combo”
Update Report | 14 Ottobre 2024 | Value Track
Abstract
New estimates: 20% FY24E EPS upgrade, 2% FY25E-26E
In light of 1H results, management indications and macro-outlook, we have upgraded our expectations for FY24E, while leaving broadly unchanged FY25E-26E forecasts. We now expect Revenues and EBITDA CAGR of 20% and 16% into FY26E, respectively, and €3mn FCF over the same period. We highlight that i) M/T growth is supported so far by a steady pace of new project acquisition; ii) the expected benefits of growing scale and better mix (Aliant) are now well visible; iii) we are optimistic also as for the start-up of the new Aliant automated plant, the next “check-point”.
Fair Value up to €5.15 p.s, due to higher FY24E FCF
Our fair Value is revised to €5.15 p.s. (vs previous €4.8), resulting from peers’ multiple analysis (on FY24E-25E financials) and DCF model. At fair value, FY25E multiples are 0.8x EV/Sales, 6.5x EV/EBITDA and 10.4 x P/E, supported by the strong growth we expect from Elsa into FY26 (22% Net Profit CAGR23A-26E).
ELSA Solutions SpA
“Heading Great FY23 and still growing, despite macro”
Update Report | 23 Aprile 2024 | Value Track
Abstract
Our revised model still indicates strong growth into FY26
Our updated model factors better FY23 results and weaker indications from sector: net effect is an upgrade for FY24-25E of 1-2% for top line and avg. 12% for EBITDA. We now expect Revenues and EBITDA CAGR of 22% and 16% into FY26E, respectively, and material FCF from FY25E, on the same key positives outlined in the past: i) cumulative M/T effect from new contract acquisition for the top line, ii) scale benefits and better mix (Aliant) for margins – still excluding H2 fuel cell and “second life battery” projects.
Fair Value adjusted to €4.8 p.s, following earning revision
Our fair Value is revised to €4.8 p.s. (vs previous €4.6 and vs €2.5 October 2023 IPO price), still resulting from peers’ multiple analysis at maturity, focused on 2025E financials, and DCF model. At fair value, multiples “converge” in 2025E towards 0.7x EV/Sales, 6.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.0x P/E, supported by the strong growth we expect from Elsa into FY26 (21% Net Profit CAGR23A-26E).
ELSA Solutions SpA
“IPO for an electrifying future”
Initiation of coverage | 30 Ottobre 2023 | Value Track
Abstract
Strong growth into FY25 and beyond, fuelled by IPO
We expect for ELSA a 24% top line CAGR2022-25, with E-motion and Aliant to record CAGR of 5% and 44% respectively (factoring for the former a slowdown over 2H23-FY24 due to macro headwinds). The growth, coupled with higher margins for batteries and scale benefits, should drive EBITDA margins from 9% of FY22 to 11% by FY25E, while FY24E is expected to face a slight margin erosion, due to increasing costs/investments to support long-term growth, funded by recent IPO.
Net net, we see a bottom line 39% CAGR2022-25 , albeit we reckon main risks are macro, execution, technology.
Our fair Equity Value at €4.0 per share
Our fair Equity Value is €4.0 per share (vs €2.5 IPO price), resulting frompeers’ multiple analysis at maturity, focused on 2025E financials, and DCF model. These indicate values of €3.0 and €5.0 respectively, with such a gapdue to i) particularly weak current equity multiples; ii) expected slowdown for EBITDA growth in FY24 (a year of strong investments on products/structure), iii) expected steady growth beyond FY25, thanks to material investments and costs carried over FY23-24E to exploit long term growth potential in an industry with long time-to-market.
