EGM
ANALIST COVERAGE
Questa sezione permette di consultare le ricerche pubblicate dagli analisti finanziari relative ad ELSA Solutions e verificare come le case di investimento valutano la società e il suo modello di business.
ELSA Solutions SpA
“FY25 Proved More Resilient than Expected”
Update Report | 14 Aprile 2026 | Value Track
FY25 was better than expected for ELSA Solutions
FY25 was better than expected for ELSA Solutions, despite still weak industrial demand. Softer volumes and limited customer visibility continued to weigh on both business lines, but lower raw material cost incidence and disciplined cost control supported margins, while tighter working capital management drove a sharp improvement in net debt. Aliant also strengthened its medium-term positioning, with 44 new projects acquired during the year, above expectations, although management remains cautious on the start of 2026
We revise estimates modestly upwards
We revise estimates modestly upwards following FY25 results and our discussion with management. While we remain cautious on the near-term backdrop, we believe the better-than-expected delivery at EBITDA and net debt level justifies a limited upgrade. We therefore leave revenues broadly unchanged, while increasing EBITDA estimates by 5-7%, earnings by 3-5%, and reflecting a €300-400k better debt profile versus previous assumptions.
Fair Value is confirmed at €3.2/share
Our valuation remains supported by both DCF and peer-based methodologies, and still implies attractive upside from current levels. Overall, we continue to see ELSA’s current valuation as undemanding relative to its medium-term potential, despite a still volatile near-term environment.
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ELSA Solutions SpA
“KPIs Unveil a Better than Expected 2025”
Update Report | 4 Febbraio 2026 | Value Track
Abstract
ELSA Solutions’ BoD approved unaudited FY25 KPIs, confirming a still-challenging demand backdrop while pointing to an encouraging pick-up in Aliant electrification projects.
• Sales at €17.7mn (-19.3% y/y, +6% vs. our expectations), with both divisions down: Aliant €9.3mn (-17.9% y/y) and E-Motion €8.4mn (-20.4% y/y), with a stable revenue split (E-Motion 47.2%, Aliant 52.8%);
• Dec-25 Backlog at €5.1mn, down from €6.0mn in Oct-25, confirming very short visibility (now ~3 months) as clients remain cautious in committing to multi-quarter capex, but the commercial activity is improving;
• Project Intake of 44 projects in FY25, above our 36 estimate (and up vs. 32 in FY24). Our reading is that, while customers are currently delaying investments, projects should convert once procurement process and clients’ confidence normalize. Hence, while near-term demand remains subdued, the rising intake suggests a constructive MT outlook.
Estimates upgraded.
We rebase FY25E on stronger KPIs, upgrading EBITDA and resetting net debt to €2.6mn (vs €4.0mn prior). For FY26-27E, despite limited visibility, we lift average EBITDA by +18% on stronger order intake momentum, with net debt €0.7–0.8mn better over the horizon and NFD improving to €2.3mn by Dec-27E.
Fair Value Raised.
We raise our fair value per share to €3.2 (from €2.5), reflecting a more supportive cost of capital environment and peer multiples trending higher across both segments. At fair value the stock would trade at 6.9x EV/EBITDA and 12.8x P/E on FY27E, broadly in line with peers.
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ELSA Solutions SpA
“FY24 in line, but challenging FY25E”
Update Report | 25 Aprile 2025 | Value Track
Abstract
Solid FY24 delivery, backlog suggests demand is softening
FY24 Results are solid and bang in line with expectations, but sales and backlog confirm momentum in the industry is very weak:
1) VoP reached €22.3mn (+15% y/y), led by Aliant (+28.0% y/y), though 2H saw diverging trends: batteries slowed, motion control rebounded;
2) EBITDA was €2.3mn (10.1% margin, -367bps y/y) on higher structural costs, mainly from expanded R&D and production teams;
3) Net Debt improved to €4.4mn (€5.4mn in FY23), thanks to strong working capital management and factoring, despite €1mn capex on the newfacility.
The backlog (€7.1mn) confirms weak short-term visibility, while project intakes (#32) signal strengthening market shares and solid midterm growth potential.
Fair Value down to €2.70 per share
We revise our Fair Value to €2.70/share (vs. €4.55), still derived from a blended approach based on peers’ multiple analysis (focusing on FY26E and “normalized” FY27E figures, as FY25E is seen as a transitional bottom year) and DCF model. At fair value, FY26E multiples are 0.6x EV/Sales, 8.5x EV/EBITDA and 20.7x P/E.
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ELSA Solutions SpA
“Deep value while waiting momentum to improve”
Update Report | 18 Febbraio 2025 | Value Track
Abstract
FY24 provisional data offers mixed KPIs
FY24 KPIs are reassuring overall as for FY24 but confirm momentum in the industry remains weak. Revenues from Sales reached €21.9mn (+13.6% y/y), primarily driven by Aliant (+28.0% y/y), while the two product lines changed pace in 2H: motion control recovered fast (+27% y/y), while growth in batteries faced a slowdown, driving FY24P top line 4% below our expectations. Dec 2024 Backlog was €7.1mn, reducing vs. €10.9mn of June 2024 and reflecting a shortened order visibility (ca. 4 months) as clients are very cautious in committing to long-term. Finally, Project Intake (for Aliant) stood at #32 projects in FY24, exceeding our #28 estimate and almost in line with the peak result of #34 projects in FY23, bodying very well for M/T growth potential.Fair Value down to €4.55 per share
Fair Value is revised to €4.55 p.s. (vs €5.15), still resulting from peers’ multiple analysis (on FY25E-26E financials) and DCF model. At fair value, FY25E multiples are 0.9x EV/Sales, 8.5x EV/EBITDA and 15.3x P/E, supported by strong growth. We estimate that the current stock price is overly cautiously factoring in an extra ca. 40% EBITDA cut in 2025E.
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ELSA Solutions SpA
“Now stock offers good value & growth combo”
Update Report | 14 Ottobre 2024 | Value Track
Abstract
New estimates: 20% FY24E EPS upgrade, 2% FY25E-26E
In light of 1H results, management indications and macro-outlook, we have upgraded our expectations for FY24E, while leaving broadly unchanged FY25E-26E forecasts. We now expect Revenues and EBITDA CAGR of 20% and 16% into FY26E, respectively, and €3mn FCF over the same period. We highlight that i) M/T growth is supported so far by a steady pace of new project acquisition; ii) the expected benefits of growing scale and better mix (Aliant) are now well visible; iii) we are optimistic also as for the start-up of the new Aliant automated plant, the next “check-point”.
Fair Value up to €5.15 p.s, due to higher FY24E FCF
Our fair Value is revised to €5.15 p.s. (vs previous €4.8), resulting from peers’ multiple analysis (on FY24E-25E financials) and DCF model. At fair value, FY25E multiples are 0.8x EV/Sales, 6.5x EV/EBITDA and 10.4 x P/E, supported by the strong growth we expect from Elsa into FY26 (22% Net Profit CAGR23A-26E).
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ELSA Solutions SpA
“Heading Great FY23 and still growing, despite macro”
Update Report | 23 Aprile 2024 | Value Track
Abstract
Our revised model still indicates strong growth into FY26
Our updated model factors better FY23 results and weaker indications from sector: net effect is an upgrade for FY24-25E of 1-2% for top line and avg. 12% for EBITDA. We now expect Revenues and EBITDA CAGR of 22% and 16% into FY26E, respectively, and material FCF from FY25E, on the same key positives outlined in the past: i) cumulative M/T effect from new contract acquisition for the top line, ii) scale benefits and better mix (Aliant) for margins – still excluding H2 fuel cell and “second life battery” projects.
Fair Value adjusted to €4.8 p.s, following earning revision
Our fair Value is revised to €4.8 p.s. (vs previous €4.6 and vs €2.5 October 2023 IPO price), still resulting from peers’ multiple analysis at maturity, focused on 2025E financials, and DCF model. At fair value, multiples “converge” in 2025E towards 0.7x EV/Sales, 6.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.0x P/E, supported by the strong growth we expect from Elsa into FY26 (21% Net Profit CAGR23A-26E).
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ELSA Solutions SpA
“IPO for an electrifying future”
Initiation of coverage | 30 Ottobre 2023 | Value Track
Abstract
Strong growth into FY25 and beyond, fuelled by IPO
We expect for ELSA a 24% top line CAGR2022-25, with E-motion and Aliant to record CAGR of 5% and 44% respectively (factoring for the former a slowdown over 2H23-FY24 due to macro headwinds). The growth, coupled with higher margins for batteries and scale benefits, should drive EBITDA margins from 9% of FY22 to 11% by FY25E, while FY24E is expected to face a slight margin erosion, due to increasing costs/investments to support long-term growth, funded by recent IPO.
Net net, we see a bottom line 39% CAGR2022-25 , albeit we reckon main risks are macro, execution, technology.
Our fair Equity Value at €4.0 per share
Our fair Equity Value is €4.0 per share (vs €2.5 IPO price), resulting frompeers’ multiple analysis at maturity, focused on 2025E financials, and DCF model. These indicate values of €3.0 and €5.0 respectively, with such a gapdue to i) particularly weak current equity multiples; ii) expected slowdown for EBITDA growth in FY24 (a year of strong investments on products/structure), iii) expected steady growth beyond FY25, thanks to material investments and costs carried over FY23-24E to exploit long term growth potential in an industry with long time-to-market.
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